TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$218,201,443
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,797,601
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,873,651
500,842
Markets across
13,663
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,809
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
D.C. United SC vs. FC Dallas - More Markets
Volume:
$39,573
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
More markets for the MLS game, scheduled for April 4 at 7:30 PM ET.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use different threshold definitions for spread markets. Polymarket defines spreads as goal differentials (e.g., '-1.5' means win by 2+ goals), while Kalshi defines spreads as strict goal margins (e.g., 'more than 1.5 goals' means win by 2+ goals). Both resolve to the same outcomes, but Kalshi's phrasing creates potential ambiguity in edge cases involving exact margin boundaries.Hero Tip:
Both platforms will resolve identically for all realistic match outcomes (e.g., a 2-0 win resolves YES on both FC Dallas (-1.5) markets). However, if you are trading on Kalshi, note that 'more than 1.5 goals' is mathematically equivalent to Polymarket's '-1.5' threshold. The resolution source (mlssoccer.com official final score, 90 minutes plus stoppage time) is identical across both platforms, so settlement risk is low.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Aligned with Kalshi on resolution source and scope: resolves based on official mlssoccer.com final score within 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Defines spreads using goal-differential thresholds (e.g., 'FC Dallas (-1.5)' resolves YES if FC Dallas wins by 2 or more goals). Primary source is official MLS statistics; if unavailable within 2 hours, credible reporting consensus is used. Quote: 'This market will resolve to FC Dallas if FC Dallas win the game by 2 or more goals.'
- Kalshi: Aligned with Polymarket on resolution source and scope: resolves based on official final score within 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Defines spreads using strict margin language (e.g., 'Dallas wins by more than 1.5 goals'). No explicit fallback source stated, but implicitly uses the same official MLS data. Quote: 'If Dallas wins by more than 1.5 goals in the DC United vs Dallas professional MLS soccer game originally scheduled for Apr 4, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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