TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
CR Vasco da Gama vs. SE Palmeiras
Volume:
$757,299
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers three linked prediction markets on the March 12, 2026 Brasileiro Serie A match between CR Vasco da Gama and SE Palmeiras. Markets track whether Vasco wins, Palmeiras wins, or the match ends in a draw, all resolved based on the 90-minute regulation result plus stoppage time.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket's cancellation clause creates an internal logical inconsistency: the draw market resolves YES on cancellation, while win markets resolve NO. Kalshi omits cancellation guidance entirely, leaving resolution ambiguous if the match is canceled.Hero Tip:
Traders should verify cancellation policy with both platforms before the match date. If Polymarket's draw-YES-on-cancellation rule is enforced, it creates an arbitrage opportunity: a canceled match would simultaneously resolve NO on both win markets and YES on the draw market, violating the logical constraint that exactly one outcome must occur. Request clarification on whether cancellation is treated as a draw or as a void/no-resolution event.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Three separate markets with inconsistent cancellation logic. Win markets (Vasco and Palmeiras) resolve NO if canceled with no makeup. Draw market resolves YES if canceled with no makeup. All three reference 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. Key quote: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve [NO for wins / YES for draw].'
- Kalshi: Three outcome-based markets (Palmeiras win, Tie, Vasco win) with no explicit cancellation clause. Resolution assumes game is completed within 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No guidance on postponement or cancellation handling. Key quote: 'If [outcome] wins the Vasco da Gama vs Palmeiras professional Brasileiro Serie A soccer game originally scheduled for Mar 12, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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