TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$224,446,576
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,198,377,813
501,416
Markets across
13,642
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,816
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
CR Vasco da Gama vs. Grêmio FBPA
Volume:
$363,424
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming Brazil Série A game, scheduled for Sunday, March 22, 2026 between CR Vasco da Gama and Grêmio FBPA.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket defines three mutually exclusive binary markets (Vasco win, Draw, Grêmio win) that collectively partition all possible outcomes, while Kalshi defines three separate YES/NO markets that each independently resolve YES for any of the three outcomes, creating a logical contradiction where all three Kalshi markets would simultaneously resolve YES.Hero Tip:
Do not trade across both platforms assuming equivalent exposure. On Polymarket, exactly one of the three markets resolves YES. On Kalshi, all three markets resolve YES simultaneously for any match result. If you are long all three Kalshi markets, you will profit on all three; if you are short all three, you will lose on all three. This is the opposite of Polymarket's structure.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket structures the event as three mutually exclusive binary markets where exactly one resolves YES based on the 90-minute match outcome. 'If CR Vasco da Gama wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No.' The Draw market similarly resolves YES only if the match ends in a draw, and the Grêmio market resolves YES only if Grêmio wins. Exactly one of the three will resolve YES.
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi structures the event as three independent YES/NO markets, each of which resolves YES for a different outcome: 'If Gremio wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Vasco da Gama wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie wins...then the market resolves to Yes.' All three markets resolve YES simultaneously regardless of the match result.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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