Kalshi and Polymarket resolve on fundamentally different event types: Kalshi settles on total goals scored (over/under markets), while Polymarket settles on match outcome (win/draw/loss). These are orthogonal dimensions of the same game and will produce independent resolution paths.
Hero Tip:
If you trade these markets, understand that Kalshi's YES/NO depends entirely on goal totals (>1.5, >2.5, >3.5, or >4.5 goals), while Polymarket's YES/NO depends on who wins or if it's a draw. A 1-0 Flamengo win resolves YES on Polymarket (Flamengo win) but NO on all four Kalshi markets (only 1 total goal, fails all thresholds). Conversely, a 2-2 draw resolves YES on Polymarket (draw market) and YES on Kalshi >1.5 and >2.5 markets, but NO on >3.5 and >4.5. Trade these independently.
Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi offers four separate over/under total-goals markets with thresholds of 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, and 4.5 combined goals. Each resolves YES if the threshold is exceeded, NO otherwise. Quote: 'If Remo and Flamengo collectively score more than [X] total goals... then the market resolves to Yes.'
Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket offers three separate match-outcome markets (Flamengo win, draw, Remo win), each resolving YES or NO based on the final result within 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Quote: 'If CR Flamengo wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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