TOTAL VOLUME:

$54.3b

24H VOL:

$158,613,015

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,206,641,323

499,459

Markets across

13,676

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

1,789

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

4

Polymarket:

51%

VS.

Kalshi:

49%

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Trending

Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs paiN Academy (BO3) - ESL Challenger League South America Cup #3 Playoffs

Volume:
$74,905
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade

Description

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper bracket semifinal 1 match between UNO MILLE and paiN Academy in the ESL Challenger League South America Cup #3 Playoffs, initially scheduled for April 5 at 5:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "UNO MILLE" if UNO MILLE win the match against paiN Academy. This market will resolve to "paiN Academy" if paiN Academy win the match against UNO MILLE. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue:

Kalshi's resolution logic is fundamentally broken and contradictory: both markets resolve to Yes regardless of match outcome (either team winning triggers Yes), making the market logically unresolvable. Polymarket provides coherent, mutually exclusive resolution criteria where exactly one team resolves to their name or the market resolves to 50-50 under specified conditions.

Hero Tip:

Do not trade on Kalshi's match winner market — it contains a logical contradiction that makes it unresolvable. Polymarket's markets are tradeable and follow standard esports resolution logic with clear winner/loser/tie outcomes. If you hold Kalshi positions, escalate to the platform for clarification before settlement.

Critical Divergence Points:

  • Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi's match winner market states 'If paiN Academy wins... then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If UNO MILLE wins... then the market resolves to Yes', creating a logical impossibility where both mutually exclusive outcomes trigger the same resolution. This violates basic binary market structure and makes the market unresolvable.
  • Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket provides mutually exclusive resolution criteria: 'This market will resolve to UNO MILLE if UNO MILLE win the match' and 'This market will resolve to paiN Academy if paiN Academy win the match', with a 50-50 fallback for cancellations, ties, delays beyond 7 days, or forfeits before match start. All sub-markets (Map 1/2/3 winners, totals, handicaps, odd/even) follow coherent, resolvable logic with clear thresholds and HLTV.org as primary source.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

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