TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Counter-Strike: Omega vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 Group Stage
Description
This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 1 match between Omega and Ursa in the CCT Europe Series #20 Group Stage, initially scheduled for March 30 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Omega" if Omega win the match against Ursa. This market will resolve to "Ursa" if Ursa win the match against Omega. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket resolve fundamentally different events. Kalshi resolves on the series outcome (who wins the BO3 match), while Polymarket resolves on granular map-level metrics (individual map winners, round counts, kill counts, and handicaps). These are logically incompatible: Kalshi's markets will resolve to YES for either team winning, making them non-informative, while Polymarket's markets depend on match completion and specific in-game statistics.Hero Tip:
Do not cross-hedge Kalshi and Polymarket positions in this group. Kalshi's binary YES outcomes (either Omega or Ursa wins) do not correlate with Polymarket's map-specific outcomes. If the match is canceled, delayed >7 days, or ends in forfeit, Kalshi resolves YES (for the winner) while Polymarket resolves 50-50 (for all map markets). Treat these as separate, non-overlapping event spaces.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi resolves to YES if either Omega or Ursa wins the BO3 match scheduled for Mar 30, 2026. The market structure is binary and does not differentiate between the two teams — both outcomes trigger YES. This creates a logical flaw: the market is guaranteed to resolve YES if the match completes, regardless of winner. Quote: 'If Ursa wins the CCT Europe Series #20 2026: Ursa vs. Omega CS2 match originally scheduled for Mar 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Omega wins the CCT Europe Series #20 2026: Ursa vs. Omega CS2 match originally scheduled for Mar 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Aligned with itself (no other platform shares this logic): Polymarket resolves on 11 distinct map-level and series-level markets, each with specific thresholds: Map 1/2/3 winners, Map 1/2/3 round parity (odd/even), Map 1/2/3 kill parity (odd/even), series total maps (over/under 2.5), and map handicaps. All markets depend on match completion and official HLTV data. Quote: 'This market will resolve to Odd if the total combined rounds played by both teams in Map 1 is an odd number. This market will resolve to Even if the total combined rounds played by both teams in Map 1 is an even number.' Cancellation, delay >7 days, or forfeit triggers 50-50 for all Polymarket markets.
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