TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$198,896,558
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,591,877
500,572
Markets across
13,691
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,797
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs
Volume:
$2,358,080
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a Counter-Strike Best-of-3 match between Legacy and Aurora Gaming in the ESL Pro League Playoffs Quarterfinal 2, scheduled for March 13, 2026 at 8:15 AM ET. Markets span series outcome, individual map winners, map statistics (kills and rounds), handicaps, and total games played.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi markets contain a logical contradiction where both possible tournament outcomes (Aurora Gaming wins ESL Pro League 2026 OR Legacy wins ESL Pro League 2026) resolve to Yes, rendering the market unresolvable. Polymarket markets are coherent and match-direct, with explicit edge-case rules. The two platforms measure fundamentally different events: Kalshi measures tournament outcome (indirect), Polymarket measures match and map outcomes (direct).Hero Tip:
Treat Kalshi markets as non-functional due to logical tautology. All settlement authority derives from Polymarket rules and HLTV.org verification. For any match outcome, cross-reference HLTV within 2 hours; if unavailable, use credible reporting consensus with video evidence. Do not attempt to reconcile Kalshi logic.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Markets condition on ESL Pro League 2026 tournament winner. Both 'Aurora Gaming wins tournament' and 'Legacy wins tournament' resolve to Yes on the same match (Aurora vs Legacy BO3 on Mar 13). This is a logical contradiction—the market cannot distinguish between outcomes. No coherent resolution path exists.
- Polymarket: Markets resolve directly on match outcome (Legacy vs Aurora Gaming BO3), individual map winners (Map 1, Map 2), map statistics (odd/even kills and rounds per map), handicaps (LGC -1.5 / AUR -1.5), and total games (O/U 2.5). Each market has explicit edge-case rules: cancellation, delay >7 days, forfeit/disqualification/walkover, incomplete play, and remake scenarios all resolve to 50-50 or specified outcomes. Primary source: HLTV.org; fallback: credible reporting + video evidence within 2 hours of match conclusion.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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