TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs ACROBATS (BO3) - PGL Astana: European Closed Qualifier Playoffs
Volume:
$50,266
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
HOTU and ACROBATS compete in a best-of-three (BO3) match during the PGL Astana 2026 European Closed Qualifier Playoffs, originally scheduled for March 31, 2026. The match outcome determines which team advances in the tournament bracket. Market participants are betting on whether the match will extend to a full three maps or conclude in fewer games.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket differ in scope and resolution logic. Kalshi's single market resolves on whether over 2.5 maps are played in the series, while Polymarket offers granular markets on individual map outcomes (winner, rounds, kills) plus series-level markets. The platforms align on using HLTV as the primary source and applying 50-50 resolution for cancellations/delays beyond 7 days, but diverge on what constitutes a 'completed match' for series resolution and whether forfeits/walkovers count toward map totals.Hero Tip:
If you trade the Kalshi 'Over 2.5 maps' market, note that it counts maps won by forfeit/disqualification/walkover toward the total, provided the match is completed. Polymarket's individual map markets (Map 1/2/3 winners, rounds, kills) resolve to 50-50 if those maps are not played or are canceled. Ensure you understand whether a series-clinching forfeit counts as a 'completed match' on your chosen platform before settling.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi offers a single series-level market ('Over 2.5 maps') that resolves YES if 3 or more maps are played, counting maps won by forfeit/disqualification/walkover toward the total. It resolves 50-50 if the match is canceled, ends in a tie, is delayed beyond 7 days without a winner, or begins but is not completed with one team winning by opponent forfeiture. Key rule: 'Maps won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the total, provided that the match is completed.'
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket offers 11 granular markets covering series outcome, individual map winners (Maps 1–2), map-level statistics (rounds and kills for Maps 1–3), and map handicaps. Each map-level market resolves 50-50 if that specific map is not played, canceled, delayed beyond 7 days, or forfeited. The series-level 'Games Total: O/U 2.5' market mirrors Kalshi's logic but adds: 'If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50.' Key difference: Polymarket's series market resolves 50-50 for incomplete matches with forfeit outcomes, whereas Kalshi counts them as completed if the clinching map is forfeited.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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