TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Qual4 (BO3) - Conquest of Prague Online Stage Group Stage
Description
fnatic and Qual4 compete in a Best-of-3 Counter-Strike match during the Conquest of Prague Online Stage Group Stage, originally scheduled for April 21, 2026 at 1:30 PM EDT. The event group encompasses 10 distinct prediction markets covering series outcome, individual map winners, map totals, and granular statistics (rounds and kills per map). All markets reference the same underlying match and resolve based on official HLTV.org data or credible consensus reporting if HLTV results are unavailable within 2 hours of match conclusion.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi market resolves YES for ANY outcome (fnatic win OR Qual4 win), making it logically incoherent and fundamentally unresolvable. Polymarket markets have well-defined binary or conditional resolution logic tied to specific match outcomes.Hero Tip:
Do not trade the Kalshi market. It contains a logical contradiction: both 'fnatic wins' and 'Qual4 wins' trigger YES resolution, leaving no NO outcome possible. Polymarket markets are resolvable; Kalshi is not.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: All Polymarket markets use standard binary or conditional logic: Map 1/2/3 Winner resolves to the actual map winner or 50-50 on cancellation/incompletion; Games Total O/U 2.5 resolves Over (3+ maps) or Under (<3 maps); Map Handicap resolves based on map differential; Odd/Even markets resolve based on actual round/kill counts or 50-50 on non-play. Primary source is HLTV.org with 2-hour fallback to credible reporting. Quote: 'This market will resolve to fnatic if fnatic win Map 1 against Qual4. This market will resolve to Qual4 if Qual4 win Map 1 against fnatic.'
- Kalshi: Kalshi market states: 'If fnatic wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Qual4 wins...then the market resolves to Yes.' This creates a logical impossibility where both possible outcomes (fnatic win or Qual4 win) map to YES, leaving no path to NO resolution. No cancellation, tie, or edge-case clause is provided. Quote: 'If fnatic wins the Conquest of Prague Online Stage 2026: Qual4 vs. fnatic CS2 match...then the market resolves to Yes. If Qual4 wins...then the market resolves to Yes.'
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