TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$158,613,015
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,206,641,323
499,459
Markets across
13,676
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,789
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Favbet (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #18 Playoffs
Description
This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 16 match between Alliance and Favbet in the CCT Europe Series #18 Playoffs, initially scheduled for March 18 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Alliance" if Alliance win the match against Favbet. This market will resolve to "Favbet" if Favbet win the match against Alliance. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's resolution rules are logically contradictory and unresolvable. Kalshi states that the market resolves YES if either Alliance OR Favbet wins, making it impossible for the market to ever resolve NO. Polymarket uses standard binary resolution (Alliance wins → resolves Alliance, Favbet wins → resolves Favbet) with clear tie-breaking and cancellation rules, creating a fundamental incompatibility between the two platforms.Hero Tip:
Do not trade the Kalshi match winner market — it contains a fatal logical flaw that makes settlement impossible. The rule 'If Alliance wins...then YES' AND 'If Favbet wins...then YES' means the market cannot distinguish between outcomes. Trade only Polymarket's version, which has coherent binary resolution logic. For map-level and statistical markets (Map 1/2/3 winners, Odd/Even kills/rounds, Games Total O/U), both platforms align on HLTV as source and use consistent conditional logic, so those markets are safe.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi's match winner market contains a logical contradiction. The rules state 'If Alliance wins the CCT Europe Series #18 2026: Favbet vs. Alliance CS2 match originally scheduled for Mar 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If Favbet wins the CCT Europe Series #18 2026: Favbet vs. Alliance CS2 match originally scheduled for Mar 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.' This means the market resolves YES regardless of which team wins, leaving no outcome for a NO resolution and making the market fundamentally unresolvable.
- Polymarket: Aligned with standard binary resolution: Polymarket's match winner market uses coherent binary logic: 'This market will resolve to Alliance if Alliance win the match against Favbet' and 'This market will resolve to Favbet if Favbet win the match against Alliance.' It includes explicit tie-breaking rules (cancellation, delay beyond 7 days, forfeits before start → 50-50 resolution) and clear source hierarchy (HLTV primary, credible consensus secondary within 2 hours). All derivative markets (Map 1/2/3 winners, Odd/Even kills/rounds, Games Total O/U) on Polymarket use the same HLTV source and consistent conditional logic.
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