TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana: European Closed Qualifier Playoffs
Volume:
$352,619
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This market resolves based on the outcome of a best-of-three (BO3) Counter-Strike 2 match between 100 Thieves and magic in the PGL Astana European Closed Qualifier Playoffs, originally scheduled for March 31, 2026. The market will resolve to YES if either team wins the match, creating a logical inconsistency in the resolution criteria.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi resolves the match winner market with a logical contradiction (both outcomes resolve YES), while Polymarket uses standard binary resolution. Both platforms agree on map-level and statistical markets using HLTV as primary source.Hero Tip:
Avoid betting on Kalshi's match winner market due to the logical flaw where both 100 Thieves winning AND magic winning both resolve to YES. Polymarket's match winner market is resolvable and standard. All map-specific and statistical markets (Odd/Even Rounds, Odd/Even Kills, Map Winners, Games Total, Map Handicap) are consistent across both platforms.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Contains a critical logical contradiction in the match winner market. The rules state 'If 100 Thieves wins... then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If magic wins... then the market resolves to Yes', making it impossible to distinguish between outcomes. All other markets (map winners, statistical markets) align with Polymarket using HLTV as primary source with 2-hour fallback to credible reporting.
- Polymarket: Aligned with Kalshi on all map-level and statistical markets: Both use HLTV as primary source with 2-hour fallback to credible reporting. Polymarket's match winner market is standard and resolvable: 'This market will resolve to 100 Thieves if 100 Thieves win the match against magic. This market will resolve to magic if magic win the match against 100 Thieves.' Polymarket also includes comprehensive edge cases for forfeits, walkovers, cancellations, and delays beyond 7 days (50-50 resolution).
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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