TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
CF Montréal vs. New York Red Bulls
Volume:
$469,036
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming MLS game, scheduled for Saturday, April 18, 2026 between CF Montréal and New York Red Bulls.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi market structure is logically incoherent: all three outcome markets (Montreal win, New York win, Tie) resolve to YES simultaneously, creating a logical contradiction where exactly one outcome should occur but all three markets can resolve YES.Hero Tip:
Do not trade Kalshi markets in this group. The resolution logic is fundamentally broken—if you bet YES on any Kalshi outcome, you cannot determine whether you won or lost because all three mutually exclusive outcomes resolve YES. Polymarket offers coherent binary markets where exactly one outcome resolves YES.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Three mutually exclusive binary markets: Montreal Win (YES/NO), Draw (YES/NO), New York Win (YES/NO). Exactly one resolves YES based on the final 90-minute result. Resolution source is official MLS statistics or credible reporting consensus within 2 hours of match conclusion. Cancellation with no makeup resolves Montreal and New York markets to NO, Draw market to YES.
- Kalshi: Three separate markets, each with identical resolution logic: 'If [outcome] wins the match after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, then the market resolves to Yes.' This creates a logical impossibility—the platform states all three markets resolve YES if their respective outcome occurs, but only one outcome can occur in a single match. The resolution rules do not specify what happens if the other outcomes occur, leaving two of the three markets with undefined resolution states.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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