TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
CF Cruz Azul vs. CF Pachuca
Volume:
$294,443
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
CF Cruz Azul will face CF Pachuca in a Liga MX professional soccer match on April 4, 2026. Markets across platforms assess three outcome dimensions: match winner (Cruz Azul, Pachuca, or Draw), and margin-of-victory thresholds (>1.5 and >2.5 goal differentials). All markets reference the official 90-minute regulation period plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket settles on three mutually exclusive binary outcomes (draw, Pachuca win, Cruz Azul win) with a single resolution source, while Kalshi settles on four independent margin-based thresholds that can overlap or all resolve NO simultaneously. The platforms use fundamentally different settlement architectures: Polymarket's three markets partition all possible outcomes into exactly one YES resolution, whereas Kalshi's four markets allow multiple simultaneous YES resolutions or all NO resolutions depending on the final score.Hero Tip:
If you trade these markets, understand that Polymarket guarantees exactly one of its three markets resolves YES (mutually exclusive outcomes), but Kalshi's four markets are independent and may all resolve NO (e.g., if Cruz Azul wins 1-0 or 2-1) or multiple markets may resolve YES simultaneously (e.g., if Cruz Azul wins 3-0, both 'Cruz Azul wins by >2.5' and 'Cruz Azul wins by >1.5' resolve YES). Do not assume Kalshi's markets partition the outcome space the way Polymarket's do.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket offers three mutually exclusive binary markets (draw YES/NO, Pachuca win YES/NO, Cruz Azul win YES/NO) that partition all possible 90-minute outcomes into exactly one YES resolution. Primary source is official Liga MX statistics within 2 hours post-match, with credible reporting as fallback. Cancellation with no makeup resolves the draw market to YES and the win markets to NO. Quote: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to Yes' (draw) and 'this market will resolve No' (win markets).
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi offers four independent margin-based threshold markets (Cruz Azul >2.5, Pachuca >1.5, Cruz Azul >1.5, Pachuca >2.5) that do not partition the outcome space. Multiple markets can resolve YES simultaneously (e.g., Cruz Azul 3-0 triggers both >2.5 and >1.5 markets), or all four can resolve NO (e.g., Cruz Azul 1-0 or 2-1). No explicit cancellation clause is provided. Quote: 'If Cruz Azul wins by more than 2.5 goals... then the market resolves to Yes' and 'If Pachuca wins by more than 1.5 goals... then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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