TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$198,735,462
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,413,651
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,238,334,809
499,092
Markets across
13,695
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,769
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Celtics vs. Heat
Description
In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for April 1 at 7:30PM ET: If the Celtics win, the market will resolve to "Celtics". If the Heat win, the market will resolve to "Heat". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's market resolves YES for ANY outcome (Miami wins OR Boston wins), making it logically incoherent and fundamentally unresolvable. Polymarket correctly structures multiple distinct markets (Moneyline, Spreads, Over/Unders, Player Props) that resolve to specific outcomes based on final game result and official NBA box scores.Hero Tip:
Do NOT trade the Kalshi market. It contains a logical contradiction that guarantees both YES and NO outcomes simultaneously, rendering settlement impossible. All trading activity should be directed to Polymarket, which offers properly structured markets with clear, mutually exclusive resolution criteria.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Contains a critical logical error. The market states 'If Miami wins the Boston at Miami professional basketball game originally scheduled for Apr 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If Boston wins the Boston at Miami professional basketball game originally scheduled for Apr 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.' This means the market resolves YES regardless of which team wins, violating the fundamental principle that a binary market must have mutually exclusive outcomes.
- Polymarket: Aligned with proper market structure: Offers 38 distinct, logically coherent markets covering Moneyline (Celtics vs Heat resolves to 'Celtics' or 'Heat'), multiple Spread tiers (Celtics -3.5 through -20.5, each with specific point thresholds), Over/Under totals (228.5 through 274.5 points), Player Props (Points, Rebounds, Assists for named players), and First Half variants. Each market has mutually exclusive outcomes tied to official NBA box scores: 'If the Celtics win the game by 4 or more points' resolves Celtics, 'Otherwise' resolves Heat.
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