TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
CD Tondela vs. Gil Vicente FC
Volume:
$746,496
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming Primeira Liga game, scheduled for Monday, April 13, 2026 between CD Tondela and Gil Vicente FC.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's market structure is fundamentally broken: it contains three separate YES-resolution conditions (Tondela win, Gil Vicente win, or Tie) that collectively cover all possible match outcomes, making the market logically unresolvable. Polymarket correctly structures three independent binary markets (one for each outcome), while Kalshi collapses all outcomes into a single market that must always resolve YES.Hero Tip:
Do not trade the Kalshi market. It is logically incoherent and will resolve YES regardless of the actual match result, making it unsuitable for prediction. Trade only on Polymarket, where the three binary markets correctly isolate each outcome.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Aligned with proper market design: Polymarket offers three independent binary markets—one each for Tondela win, Gil Vicente win, and draw. Each market resolves YES or NO based on the actual match outcome, with exactly one market resolving YES. Primary source is Liga Portugal official statistics within 2 hours of match conclusion, or credible reporting consensus if delayed. Scope is 90 minutes plus stoppage time only.
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi presents a single market with three resolution conditions: 'If Tondela wins... then YES. If Vicente wins... then YES. If Tie... then YES.' This structure guarantees the market resolves YES for every possible match outcome, rendering it logically incoherent and unresolvable as a prediction instrument. The market cannot distinguish between outcomes and violates basic binary market logic.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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