Market structure and cancellation handling differ between platforms. Polymarket explicitly addresses cancellation (Draw resolves Yes, Win markets resolve No), while Kalshi omits cancellation language. Both platforms agree on the core match outcome scope (90 minutes + stoppage time only).
Hero Tip:
Focus on the unified core: match outcome is determined by the result after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. Verify each platform's cancellation and postponement protocols independently. If the game is postponed, both platforms keep markets open; if canceled without makeup, Polymarket's Draw market resolves Yes while Win markets resolve No—Kalshi's behavior is undefined.
Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket: Three separate binary markets with explicit cancellation rules. Draw market resolves Yes if game is canceled with no makeup; Win markets (Riestra/Montevideo) resolve No if canceled. Primary source is official CONMEBOL statistics or credible reporting consensus within 2 hours of match conclusion.
Kalshi: Three separate binary markets (Riestra Wins / Montevideo Wins / Tie) with no explicit cancellation clause. Each resolves Yes if that outcome occurs after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No fallback resolution source specified.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.