TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
CD Guadalajara vs. Pumas de la UNAM
Volume:
$1,299,122
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
CD Guadalajara and Pumas de la UNAM will compete in a Liga MX professional soccer match on April 5, 2026. The outcome will be determined by the result after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. This is a standard three-way outcome event (Guadalajara win, Pumas win, or draw).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket structures three mutually exclusive binary markets (Guadalajara win, Draw, Pumas win) where exactly one resolves YES, while Kalshi presents three independent YES/NO markets that can all resolve YES simultaneously for the same match outcome, creating a fundamental logical contradiction in how the event group settles.Hero Tip:
Do not cross-hedge between Polymarket and Kalshi on this event. On Polymarket, exactly one of the three outcomes will resolve YES; on Kalshi, all three markets resolve YES for the same match result. A Guadalajara win resolves YES on Polymarket's Guadalajara market and NO on the other two, but on Kalshi it resolves YES on the Guadalajara market only (not on Pumas or Tie). Betting the same outcome across both platforms does not create a risk-free arbitrage because the market structures are incompatible.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Outlier: Polymarket structures the event as three mutually exclusive binary markets where exactly one outcome (Guadalajara win, Draw, or Pumas win) will resolve YES and the other two resolve NO. The three markets are: 'Will CD Guadalajara win', 'Will the game end in a draw', and 'Will Pumas de la UNAM win'. All three share identical resolution sources (official Liga MX statistics or credible reporting consensus within 2 hours) and scope (90 minutes plus stoppage time only), but the market design enforces that only one can be YES at settlement.
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi presents three independent YES/NO markets, each asking 'If [outcome] wins/occurs, then resolve YES', which logically allows all three markets to resolve YES simultaneously for the same match. The three markets are structured as: 'If Guadalajara wins...then YES', 'If Pumas wins...then YES', and 'If Tie occurs...then YES'. This creates a scenario where a single match result (e.g., Guadalajara victory) triggers YES on the Guadalajara market but leaves the Pumas and Tie markets to resolve NO, yet the market wording does not enforce mutual exclusivity as Polymarket does.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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