TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$198,735,462
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,413,651
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,238,334,809
499,092
Markets across
13,695
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,769
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Cavaliers vs. Pelicans
Description
In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for March 21 at 7:00PM ET: If the Cavaliers win, the market will resolve to "Cavaliers". If the Pelicans win, the market will resolve to "Pelicans". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's market resolves YES for ANY outcome (Cleveland wins OR New Orleans wins), making it logically incoherent and fundamentally unresolvable. Polymarket correctly structures mutually exclusive outcomes (Cavaliers, Pelicans, or 50-50 on cancellation), providing coherent resolution logic.Hero Tip:
Avoid Kalshi's moneyline market entirely — it is mathematically broken and will resolve YES regardless of the game result. Trade only on Polymarket's Cavaliers vs. Pelicans moneyline, which has proper binary logic. All player prop and spread markets on Polymarket are resolvable; Kalshi's core moneyline is not.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi's moneyline market states 'If Cleveland wins the game, then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If New Orleans wins the game, then the market resolves to Yes.' This creates a logical contradiction where the market resolves YES for every possible outcome, making it unresolvable. Key quote: 'If Cleveland wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If New Orleans wins... then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Aligned with sound resolution logic: Polymarket's moneyline market correctly defines mutually exclusive outcomes — 'If the Cavaliers win, the market will resolve to Cavaliers. If the Pelicans win, the market will resolve to Pelicans.' This provides coherent, resolvable logic. Key quote: 'If the Cavaliers win, the market will resolve to Cavaliers. If the Pelicans win, the market will resolve to Pelicans.'
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