TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Casa Pia AC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica
Volume:
$1,247,743
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming Primeira Liga game, scheduled for Monday, April 6, 2026 between Casa Pia AC and Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket offers three separate binary markets (Casa Pia win, Draw, Benfica win) that are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive, while Kalshi presents a single market with three non-mutually-exclusive YES outcomes, creating a logical contradiction where all three Kalshi outcomes cannot simultaneously resolve YES.Hero Tip:
Do not trade across these platforms assuming equivalent coverage. Polymarket's three markets will have exactly one resolve YES (the actual match result). Kalshi's single market structure is logically incoherent—it claims to resolve YES for 'Casa Pia wins' OR 'Tie wins' OR 'SL Benfica wins', but these are mutually exclusive outcomes. Clarify with Kalshi whether this is a single market that resolves YES only if one specific outcome occurs, or if the platform intends three separate markets.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket structures the event as three separate binary markets—one for each possible outcome (Casa Pia win, Draw, Benfica win). Exactly one market resolves YES based on the actual 90-minute result. All three markets share identical resolution sources (Liga Portugal official statistics or credible reporting consensus within 2 hours) and identical scope (90 minutes plus stoppage time, no extra time). Quote: 'If Casa Pia AC wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No' (and analogous logic for the other two markets).
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi presents a single market with three listed outcomes ('SL Benfica wins', 'Tie wins', 'Casa Pia wins'), each stated as a condition for YES resolution. The market structure is ambiguous—it is unclear whether this is one market that resolves YES for only one outcome, or three separate markets. The rules state 'If [outcome X] wins...then the market resolves to Yes' for each of the three outcomes, which is logically impossible for a single market. Quote: 'If SL Benfica wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Casa Pia wins...then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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