TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$230,557,910
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,202,344,730
501,342
Markets across
13,602
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,822
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs
Volume:
$1,157,008
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
On April 8, 2025 at 7:30 PM ET, the Washington Capitals face the Toronto Maple Leafs in a regular-season NHL matchup. Markets track both the moneyline winner and multiple over/under totals (4.5, 5.5, 6.5, and 7.5 combined goals), with resolution based on final regulation + overtime + shootout scoring.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally incompatible resolution logic for the same event. Kalshi's market resolves YES for either team winning (making it logically impossible to distinguish outcomes), while Polymarket offers mutually exclusive outcomes (Capitals vs. Maple Leafs) with proper winner determination.Hero Tip:
Do not trade Kalshi's market — it contains a logical flaw that makes it unresolvable. Polymarket's markets (moneyline and totals) are properly structured. If you hold Kalshi positions, seek clarification or refund before settlement.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi's moneyline market resolves YES if either the Maple Leafs OR the Capitals wins, creating a logical contradiction where both possible outcomes trigger YES resolution. The rules state: 'If TOR Maple Leafs wins... then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If WSH Capitals wins... then the market resolves to Yes,' leaving no outcome that resolves to NO.
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket offers mutually exclusive binary outcomes — the moneyline resolves to either 'Capitals' or 'Maple Leafs' based on which team wins, with clear tie-breaking rules (postponement keeps market open; cancellation resolves 50-50). Polymarket also provides four separate over/under total-goals markets (3.5, 4.5, 5.5, 6.5) and three spread markets (-1.5, -2.5, -3.5), all with consistent postponement and cancellation clauses.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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