TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$158,613,015
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,206,641,323
499,459
Markets across
13,676
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,789
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Canadiens vs. Kings
Volume:
$1,044,138
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers an NHL game between the Montreal Canadiens and Los Angeles Kings scheduled for March 7, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET. Markets span moneyline (winner), spread betting (margin of victory), and total goals (over/under various thresholds).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi presents four mutually exclusive margin-of-victory conditions that cannot all resolve Yes simultaneously on a single game outcome. Polymarket's spread definition (Kings -1.5 = Kings win by 2+) differs from Kalshi's stated thresholds (1.5+ and 2.5+), creating incompatible settlement logic across platforms.Hero Tip:
Do not assume Kalshi's four margin markets are independent. A game where LA wins by exactly 2 goals would satisfy Kalshi conditions 1 and 4 simultaneously, violating binary market logic. Polymarket's spread market is unambiguous: Kings -1.5 resolves Yes if and only if Kings win by 2+ goals. Recommend trading Polymarket for spread exposure and requesting clarification from Kalshi on whether their markets are correctly specified.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Four markets with overlapping margin thresholds: (1) LA wins by >2.5 goals = Yes, (2) Montreal wins by >1.5 goals = Yes, (3) Montreal wins by >2.5 goals = Yes, (4) LA wins by >1.5 goals = Yes. These conditions are not mutually exclusive and create logical contradiction. For example, if LA wins 4-1 (3-goal margin), conditions 1 and 4 both resolve Yes.
- Polymarket: Spread market (Kings -1.5) resolves to Kings if Kings win by 2+ goals, otherwise Canadiens. This is a standard binary spread with clear, mutually exclusive outcomes. Moneyline resolves to winner. Total goals markets (O/U 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5) resolve based on combined team score with shootout adjustment (+1 to winner).
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.
PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.