TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
CA Tigre vs. Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata
Volume:
$331,305
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a professional Argentina Primera Division soccer match between CA Tigre and Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata scheduled for March 1, 2026. Markets across Polymarket and Kalshi predict the outcome (Tigre win, Gimnasia win, or draw) based on the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use identical outcome definitions and timing (90 minutes plus stoppage time) but differ in cancellation handling and market structure clarity. Polymarket's draw market contains an asymmetric cancellation rule that contradicts its win markets, and Kalshi lacks explicit cancellation guidance.Hero Tip:
Monitor official AFA.com.ar for match confirmation. If the game is postponed, both platforms commit to keeping markets open until completion. If canceled with no makeup: Polymarket draw resolves Yes while win markets resolve No (asymmetric risk); Kalshi's behavior is undefined. Consider this cancellation asymmetry when allocating capital across platforms.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Three separate binary markets (Tigre win, Gimnasia win, draw). Core logic: resolve based on 90-minute outcome. Postponement: markets remain open. Cancellation: Tigre and Gimnasia win markets resolve No; draw market resolves Yes. Key quote: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve Yes' (draw only) vs 'this market will resolve No' (win markets).
- Kalshi: Three separate binary markets, each resolving Yes if its outcome occurs after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No explicit postponement or cancellation clause provided. Key quote: 'If Tigre wins... then the market resolves to Yes' (outcome-based, no contingency language).
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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