TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. Estudiantes de La Plata
Volume:
$342,097
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming Primera División Argentina game, scheduled for Friday, April 3, 2026 between CA San Lorenzo de Almagro and Estudiantes de La Plata.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket offers three separate binary markets (San Lorenzo win, Draw, Estudiantes win) that are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive, while Kalshi offers three separate YES/NO markets that each resolve YES for different outcomes of the same event, creating a logical contradiction where multiple Kalshi markets would resolve YES simultaneously.Hero Tip:
Do not trade across these platforms assuming they are equivalent. On Polymarket, exactly one of the three markets will resolve YES. On Kalshi, all three markets will resolve YES if you bet on all outcomes (San Lorenzo win, Estudiantes win, or Tie), making Kalshi's structure fundamentally different from Polymarket's mutually exclusive design. Clarify with the platform which outcome you are actually betting on before committing capital.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket structures the event as three mutually exclusive binary markets where exactly one will resolve YES and the other two will resolve NO. The three markets are: (1) San Lorenzo wins, (2) Draw occurs, (3) Estudiantes wins. Each market independently resolves based on the 90-minute match outcome, with postponement keeping markets open and cancellation resolving non-win markets to NO and the draw market to YES. Primary source is official AFA statistics within 2 hours or credible reporting consensus.
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi structures the event as three separate YES/NO markets that each resolve YES for a different outcome of the same match: Market 1 resolves YES if San Lorenzo wins, Market 2 resolves YES if Estudiantes wins, Market 3 resolves YES if Tie occurs. This means all three Kalshi markets will resolve YES simultaneously for the same event outcome, contradicting the mutually exclusive logic of Polymarket. No explicit cancellation or postponement rules are provided.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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