TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
CA Newell's Old Boys vs. CA Platense
Volume:
$424,959
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers three linked prediction markets on the Argentina Primera Division soccer match between CA Newell's Old Boys and CA Platense scheduled for March 10, 2026. The markets assess whether Newell's Old Boys wins, Platense wins, or the match ends in a draw, all evaluated at 90 minutes plus stoppage time (regular play only).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's three markets are logically contradictory (all resolve Yes if game is played, but only one outcome can occur). Polymarket has asymmetric cancellation logic (Win markets resolve No, Draw resolves Yes on cancellation), creating arbitrage exposure and inconsistent treatment of the same cancellation event.Hero Tip:
Do not trade Kalshi markets until the platform clarifies whether all three outcomes should resolve Yes only upon game completion, or if the structure is a data entry error. On Polymarket, recognize that cancellation creates a guaranteed profit scenario: long Draw + short both Win markets. Monitor official AFA (Asociacion del Futbol Argentino) announcements for postponement or cancellation risk, as this is the primary trigger for divergent resolution.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: All three mutually exclusive outcomes (Newell's win, Platense win, Tie) are structured to resolve Yes if the game is played. This is logically impossible since only one outcome can occur. The platform does not specify what happens if the game is canceled. Key Quote: 'If [outcome] wins...then the market resolves to Yes' (identical language for all three).
- Polymarket: Three separate markets with asymmetric cancellation rules: Newell's win resolves No on cancellation, Platense win resolves No on cancellation, but Draw resolves Yes on cancellation. This creates opposite payoffs for the same cancellation event. Key Quote: Win markets state 'this market will resolve No' on cancellation; Draw market states 'this market will resolve Yes' on cancellation.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.
PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.