TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$198,735,462
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,413,651
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,238,334,809
499,092
Markets across
13,695
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,769
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Bulls vs. Mavericks
Description
In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for April 12 at 8:30PM ET: If the Bulls win, the market will resolve to "Bulls". If the Mavericks win, the market will resolve to "Mavericks". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's market resolves YES for both possible outcomes (Dallas wins OR Chicago wins), making it logically contradictory and fundamentally unresolvable. Polymarket correctly structures multiple distinct markets (moneyline, spreads, totals) that each resolve to a single outcome based on the game result.Hero Tip:
Avoid the Kalshi market entirely — it contains a logical error that guarantees YES resolution regardless of the game outcome. Trade only on Polymarket, where all markets have proper binary or categorical resolution logic tied to actual game results.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Contains a critical logical contradiction. Both resolution rules state the market resolves to Yes: 'If Dallas wins... then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If Chicago wins... then the market resolves to Yes.' This means the market resolves YES for every possible outcome, making it unresolvable and untraditional.
- Polymarket: Aligned with standard sports betting logic: Offers multiple distinct markets (moneyline, spreads, totals, first-half variants) where each market resolves to exactly one outcome based on the game result. For example, the moneyline resolves to 'Bulls' if Chicago wins or 'Mavericks' if Dallas wins, and spread markets resolve based on point differential thresholds.
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