TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$198,735,462
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,413,651
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,238,334,809
499,092
Markets across
13,695
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,769
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Bulls vs. Knicks
Volume:
$3,519,892
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
On April 3 at 7:30 PM ET, the Chicago Bulls face the New York Knicks in an NBA game. Markets across platforms are pricing the Knicks as heavy favorites (spread between -15.5 and -16.5) with combined scoring totals set near 238 points. All outcomes—moneyline, spread, and totals—will be determined by the final score including overtime, with contingencies for postponement (markets remain open) or full cancellation (50-50 split).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket resolve on fundamentally different events: Kalshi settles on first-half regulation outcomes (tie, Chicago win, or New York win), while Polymarket settles on full-game outcomes (Bulls win, Knicks win, or game cancellation). These are incompatible resolution scopes.Hero Tip:
Do not cross-hedge Kalshi and Polymarket positions in this group. A Kalshi YES (first half) can occur independently of a Polymarket Bulls YES (full game). Kalshi's first-half markets are entirely separate from Polymarket's full-game and player prop markets. Treat them as distinct event groups.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi resolves exclusively on first-half regulation outcomes. All three Kalshi markets (tie, Chicago win, New York win) resolve YES if their respective first-half condition is met, regardless of full-game result. Key quote: 'If Tie is the result of the first half of regulation time in the Chicago vs New York professional basketball game originally scheduled for Apr 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Aligned with itself: Polymarket resolves on full-game outcomes (Bulls moneyline, Knicks moneyline, spreads, totals, player props, and first-half markets). All full-game markets use final score including overtime; first-half markets use halftime score only. Key quote: 'The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods' and 'The result will be determined based on the score at halftime only.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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