TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$198,735,462
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,413,651
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,238,334,809
499,092
Markets across
13,695
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,769
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Bucks vs. Trail Blazers
Description
In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for March 25 at 10:00PM ET: If the Bucks win, the market will resolve to "Bucks". If the Trail Blazers win, the market will resolve to "Trail Blazers". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's market resolves YES for both Milwaukee and Portland wins, creating a logical contradiction where the market cannot resolve NO. Polymarket correctly structures mutually exclusive outcomes (Bucks vs. Trail Blazers) with proper binary or categorical resolution. This makes Kalshi's market fundamentally unresolvable.Hero Tip:
Do not trade on Kalshi's moneyline market—it contains a fatal logical error. All Polymarket markets (moneyline, spreads, totals, player props) are properly structured and resolvable. If you hold Kalshi exposure, seek clarification from Kalshi support before settlement.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Resolves YES if Milwaukee wins AND YES if Portland wins, with no NO outcome defined. This creates a logical contradiction where the market cannot fail to resolve YES regardless of the game result. The rules state: 'If Milwaukee wins the Milwaukee at Portland professional basketball game originally scheduled for Mar 25, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Portland wins the Milwaukee at Portland professional basketball game originally scheduled for Mar 25, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.' No resolution path to NO is provided.
- Polymarket: Aligned with proper binary/categorical logic: Moneyline resolves to either 'Bucks' or 'Trail Blazers' based on final score, with clear mutually exclusive outcomes. All derivative markets (spreads, totals, player props) follow standard NBA resolution rules tied to official NBA.com box scores. Example: 'If the Bucks win, the market will resolve to Bucks. If the Trail Blazers win, the market will resolve to Trail Blazers.' All outcomes are logically complete.
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