TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$198,735,462
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,413,651
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,238,334,809
499,092
Markets across
13,695
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,769
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Bucks vs. 76ers
Description
In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for April 12 at 6:00PM ET: If the Bucks win, the market will resolve to "Bucks". If the 76ers win, the market will resolve to "76ers". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally incompatible resolution logic. Kalshi's market resolves YES for ANY outcome (Philadelphia wins OR Milwaukee wins), making it logically incoherent. Polymarket uses standard binary resolution (Bucks win → 'Bucks', 76ers win → '76ers'), which is the correct framework for a moneyline market.Hero Tip:
DO NOT trade on Kalshi's moneyline market (items 1-2). It is unresolvable as written because both possible outcomes trigger YES resolution. Trade only on Polymarket's moneyline (item 2) and all spread/total markets, which use sound logic. If you hold Kalshi YES, expect either a market cancellation or forced 50-50 resolution due to the logical contradiction.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi's moneyline market (items 1-2) states 'If Philadelphia wins... then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If Milwaukee wins... then the market resolves to Yes.' This creates a logical impossibility where every possible outcome resolves YES, with no NO resolution path. Key quote: 'If Philadelphia wins the Milwaukee at Philadelphia professional basketball game originally scheduled for Apr 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Milwaukee wins the Milwaukee at Philadelphia professional basketball game originally scheduled for Apr 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Aligned with standard moneyline logic: Polymarket's moneyline (item 2) correctly implements binary resolution: 'If the Bucks win, the market will resolve to Bucks. If the 76ers win, the market will resolve to 76ers.' All spread markets (items 6-8, 72-105) and total markets (items 4-5, 18-21, 60-71, 80-81, 94-101) use consistent, sound logic with clear thresholds and tie-breaking rules. Key quote: 'If the Bucks win, the market will resolve to Bucks. If the 76ers win, the market will resolve to 76ers.'
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