TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$158,613,015
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,206,641,323
499,459
Markets across
13,676
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,789
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Bruins vs. Sabres
Description
In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for March 25 at 7:00PM ET: If the Bruins win, the market will resolve to "Bruins". If the Sabres win, the market will resolve to "Sabres". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use different threshold interpretations for over/under markets. Kalshi lists 8 separate over-threshold markets (2.5, 3.5, 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5, 8.5, 9.5 goals), while Polymarket specifies 4 distinct over/under markets with thresholds at 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, and 7.5 goals, each with different resolution triggers (5+, 6+, 7+, 8+ goals respectively).Hero Tip:
If you trade these markets, note that Kalshi's 'over 5.5' resolves YES at 6+ goals, while Polymarket's 'O/U 5.5' also resolves Over at 6+ goals — these align. However, Kalshi offers granular sub-4.5 thresholds (2.5, 3.5) that Polymarket does not cover. For the moneyline (Bruins vs. Sabres winner) and spread (Sabres -1.5), both platforms align perfectly. Focus your arbitrage analysis on the over/under threshold differences and the missing Kalshi sub-4.5 markets on Polymarket.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi offers 8 granular over-threshold markets spanning 2.5 to 9.5 goals, each resolving YES if the combined total exceeds that threshold. For example, 'over 2.5' resolves YES at 3+ goals, 'over 5.5' resolves YES at 6+ goals. Kalshi does not explicitly define Under outcomes or cancellation/postponement rules.
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket offers 4 over/under markets (4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5) with explicit binary resolution (Over or Under), detailed postponement/cancellation rules (remain open until completion; resolve 50-50 if canceled), and shootout clarification (one goal added to winner's score). For example, 'O/U 5.5' resolves Over at 6+ goals, Under at 0-5 goals.
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