TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$224,446,576
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,198,377,813
501,416
Markets across
13,642
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,816
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Brisbane Roar FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC
Volume:
$422,939
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming Australia A-League game, scheduled for Saturday, March 21, 2026 between Brisbane Roar FC and Wellington Phoenix FC.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi markets resolve on total goals scored (over/under thresholds: 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5), while Polymarket markets resolve on match outcome (Brisbane win, draw, Wellington win). The platforms use fundamentally different resolution logic and cannot be directly compared.Hero Tip:
Kalshi bettors are predicting goal volume; Polymarket bettors are predicting match outcome. A high-scoring Brisbane win satisfies Kalshi's over-goal markets but only Polymarket's Brisbane win market. Do not assume correlation between platforms—a YES on Kalshi (many goals) does not predict Polymarket outcome.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi resolves on aggregate goal thresholds only. Four separate markets each resolve YES if Wellington and Brisbane collectively score more than 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, or 4.5 goals respectively. Resolution is binary per threshold: 'If Wellington and Brisbane collectively score more than [X] total goals... then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket resolves on match outcome (three mutually exclusive markets: Brisbane win, draw, Wellington win). Each market resolves YES or NO based on the final score outcome within 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Primary source is official A-League statistics: 'If Brisbane Roar FC wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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