TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$158,613,015
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,206,641,323
499,459
Markets across
13,676
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,789
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Brazil vs. Croatia
Volume:
$1,745,208
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for Tuesday, March 31, 2026 between Brazil and Croatia.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's three markets create a logical impossibility: all three outcomes (Brazil win, Croatia win, Tie) are marked to resolve YES, making simultaneous resolution impossible. Polymarket uses mutually exclusive binary markets (Brazil YES/NO, Croatia YES/NO, Draw YES/NO) with coherent resolution logic. The platforms have fundamentally incompatible settlement structures.Hero Tip:
Do not trade Kalshi markets in this group — they contain a fatal logical error where all three outcomes cannot simultaneously resolve YES as written. Polymarket's markets are resolvable and should be treated as the authoritative reference. If you hold Kalshi positions, escalate to the platform for clarification before the March 31, 2026 event.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi defines three separate markets, each stating 'resolves to Yes' for a different outcome (Brazil win, Croatia win, or Tie). This creates a logical contradiction because exactly one outcome will occur, yet the market rules state all three resolve YES. Key quote: 'If Brazil wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Croatia wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie wins...then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Aligned with coherent binary logic: Polymarket structures three mutually exclusive binary markets (Brazil YES/NO, Croatia YES/NO, Draw YES/NO) where exactly one outcome resolves YES and the others resolve NO. Key quote: 'If Brazil wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No.' This ensures only one market per outcome resolves affirmatively.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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