TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$230,557,910
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,202,344,730
501,342
Markets across
13,602
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,822
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Boxing: Tyson Fury vs. Arslanbek Makhmudov
Volume:
$1,489,650
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the heavyweight boxing match between Tyson Fury and Arslanbek Makhmudov originally scheduled for April 11, 2026. Markets resolve based on the official outcome of the bout, with either fighter's victory triggering a Yes resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally incompatible resolution logic. Kalshi resolves YES for either fighter winning, making the market logically impossible to resolve to NO. Polymarket resolves to a specific fighter name (Fury or Makhmudov) or 50-50 for non-decisive outcomes, creating a binary outcome structure. These are mutually exclusive resolution frameworks.Hero Tip:
Do not trade across these platforms expecting consistent outcomes. On Kalshi, the market will always resolve YES regardless of who wins, making it a certainty bet rather than a competitive prediction. On Polymarket, you are betting on a specific fighter or a draw/cancellation outcome. Treat these as entirely separate markets with no hedge relationship.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Resolves YES if Tyson Fury wins OR if Arslanbek Makhmudov wins. The market has no NO resolution path for any realistic fight outcome, creating a logical contradiction. Quote: 'If Tyson Fury wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Arslanbek Makhmudov wins...then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Resolves to 'Fury' if Fury wins, 'Makhmudov' if Makhmudov wins, or '50-50' if the fight is a draw, no contest, canceled, or postponed beyond April 25, 2026. This creates three distinct outcome categories with a defined fallback rule. Quote: 'It will resolve to Fury if Tyson Fury is officially declared the winner...It will resolve to Makhmudov if Arslanbek Makhmudov is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond April 25, 2026, this market will resolve 50-50.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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