TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Botafogo FR vs. Mirassol FC
Volume:
$371,606
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the outcome of a Botafogo FR vs. Mirassol FC match scheduled for April 1, 2026, in Brazil's Série A championship. Markets are structured to capture three mutually exclusive outcomes: Botafogo win, Mirassol win, or draw, evaluated only within 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time (excluding extra time and penalties).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally incompatible resolution structures for the same match. Polymarket offers three mutually exclusive binary markets (Mirassol win, Draw, Botafogo win) where exactly one resolves YES, while Kalshi offers three independent YES/NO markets that can all resolve YES simultaneously if any outcome occurs, creating logical contradiction.Hero Tip:
Do not cross-hedge between Polymarket and Kalshi on this match. On Polymarket, exactly one of the three markets will resolve YES. On Kalshi, all three markets will resolve YES regardless of outcome (since every possible result—Tie, Botafogo win, or Mirassol win—triggers a YES on one of the three markets). This is not a source or timing divergence; it is a structural incompatibility in how the platforms define the market group.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket structures three mutually exclusive binary markets where the match outcome determines which single market resolves YES and the other two resolve NO. The three markets are: 'Will Mirassol FC win' (YES if Mirassol wins, NO otherwise), 'Will the game end in a draw' (YES if draw, NO otherwise), and 'Will Botafogo FR win' (YES if Botafogo wins, NO otherwise). Exactly one market in the group will resolve YES. Primary source is official CBF statistics within 2 hours of match conclusion, or credible reporting consensus if CBF does not publish. Cancellation with no makeup resolves the draw market to YES and the win markets to NO.
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi structures three independent conditional markets, each of which resolves YES if its specified outcome occurs: Market 1 resolves YES if Tie (draw) wins, Market 2 resolves YES if Botafogo wins, and Market 3 resolves YES if Mirassol wins. Because every possible match outcome (draw, Botafogo win, or Mirassol win) triggers exactly one of these three conditions, all three Kalshi markets will resolve YES as a group, regardless of the actual match result. This is logically incompatible with Polymarket's structure where only one market resolves YES.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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