TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Bolton Wanderers FC vs. Huddersfield Town AFC
Description
Bolton Wanderers FC will face Huddersfield Town AFC on April 18, 2026, in a competitive match within the English Football League. The outcome will be determined by the result achieved within 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, with three possible resolutions: a Bolton victory, a Huddersfield victory, or a draw. All three markets (Bolton win, Huddersfield win, draw) are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive, covering all possible match outcomes.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi market structure is logically incoherent: all three outcome markets (Huddersfield win, Bolton win, Tie) resolve to YES independently, making it impossible for exactly one to be true. This violates basic mutual exclusivity required for a valid three-way outcome market.Hero Tip:
Do not trade the Kalshi markets as written. The resolution logic is contradictory—if Bolton wins, both the Bolton market AND the Tie market cannot both resolve YES. Polymarket's binary structure (separate YES/NO markets per outcome) is logically sound; Kalshi's is not. Seek clarification from Kalshi before placing any bets.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Three separate binary markets: (1) Huddersfield win resolves YES only if Huddersfield wins, NO otherwise; (2) Bolton win resolves YES only if Bolton wins, NO otherwise; (3) Draw resolves YES only if draw, NO otherwise. Exactly one outcome will occur, and exactly one market will resolve YES. Quote: 'If Huddersfield Town AFC wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No.'
- Kalshi: Three separate markets with identical resolution logic: (1) 'If Huddersfield wins...then resolves to Yes'; (2) 'If Bolton wins...then resolves to Yes'; (3) 'If Tie wins...then resolves to Yes.' This structure implies all three markets could resolve YES simultaneously if their conditions are met, which is logically impossible in a single match. Quote: 'If Huddersfield wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Bolton wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie wins...then the market resolves to Yes.'
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