TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$224,446,576
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,198,377,813
501,416
Markets across
13,642
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,816
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
BNB Up or Down - April 5, 5PM ET
Volume:
$1,601
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether BNB/USDT will close higher than or equal to its opening price during a specific 1-hour candle on April 5, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Two prediction platforms have created markets around this event, but they use fundamentally different data sources and measurement methodologies to determine the outcome.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use incompatible data sources (Binance spot 1H candle vs CF Benchmarks 60-second RTI average), incompatible time windows (1-hour candle vs 60-second snapshot), and Kalshi's resolution logic appears structurally broken (all price buckets resolve to Yes, eliminating binary resolution).Hero Tip:
Treat these as separate, non-correlated markets. Polymarket is a standard directional bet on BNB/USDT hourly candle direction. Kalshi's market structure is suspect—verify with the platform that all 40 price conditions truly resolve to Yes before committing capital. If confirmed, Kalshi's market is not a directional price bet and should not be hedged against Polymarket.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary directional market. Resolves Up if BNB/USDT 1-hour candle close >= open at 5 PM ET on April 5, 2026. Uses Binance official BNB/USDT pair. Data source: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BNB_USDT. Key Quote: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
- Kalshi: Price bucket market with 40 conditions, all resolving to Yes. Measures simple average of 60 seconds of CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT on April 5, 2026. Covers price range <$490 to >$679.99 in $5 increments. Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is [any price range]... then the market resolves to Yes.' (All 40 conditions identical outcome.)
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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