TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
BNB Up or Down - April 16, 5PM ET
Volume:
$1,081
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This market resolves based on whether BNB/USDT closes higher than or equal to its opening price during the 1-hour candle beginning at April 16, 5PM ET on Binance. A close price ≥ open price resolves to 'Up'; otherwise it resolves to 'Down'. The settlement uses only Binance's official BNB/USDT pair data, not other exchanges or trading pairs.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi measure fundamentally different events at the same timestamp. Polymarket resolves on Binance BNB/USDT 1H candle open vs. close comparison, while Kalshi resolves on whether CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI falls into one of 40 specific price bands—creating incompatible settlement values and resolution criteria.Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets move together. Polymarket is a directional bet (Up/Down); Kalshi is a price-band lottery where almost every price point resolves YES. If BNB closes above open on Polymarket (Up wins), Kalshi may still resolve NO if the CF Benchmarks average falls in one of the few uncovered gaps ($515-519.99 excluded, $520-524.99 included, etc.). Arbitrage is blocked by source mismatch and incompatible payoff structures.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary Up/Down based on Binance BNB/USDT 1H candle: resolves UP if close >= open, DOWN otherwise. Single resolution source: Binance official price feed for the 1-hour candle beginning at 5 PM ET on April 16. Quote: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
- Kalshi: 40-outcome price-band resolution based on CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI 60-second simple average before 5 PM EDT. Resolves YES if price falls into any of 40 bands ($515-519.99, $520-524.99, ... $700-704.99, or above $704.99 or below $515). Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is [band], then the market resolves to Yes.' Only gaps are $555-559.99 (covered), $560-564.99 (covered), etc.—effectively all prices resolve YES except for unmapped micro-ranges.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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