TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$87,997,338

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,395,155,069

395,664

Markets across

30,076

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,626

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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BNB Up or Down - April 16, 5PM ET
kalshi
polymarket

BNB Up or Down - April 16, 5PM ET

Volume:
$1,081

BNB price on Apr 16, 2026?

 - Kalshi

BNB price on Apr 16, 2026? - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 17, 2026

Closed: Apr 16, 5:05 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

BNB price on Apr 16, 2026?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$468
N/A
N/A
$468
Settled
No
polymarket

BNB Up or Down - April 16, 5PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$279
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

BNB price on Apr 16, 2026?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$188
N/A
N/A
$188
Settled
No
kalshi

BNB price on Apr 16, 2026?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$134
N/A
N/A
$134
Settled
No
kalshi

BNB price on Apr 16, 2026?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
No
kalshi

BNB price on Apr 16, 2026?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
No
kalshi

BNB price on Apr 16, 2026?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
kalshi

BNB price on Apr 16, 2026?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
kalshi

BNB price on Apr 16, 2026?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
kalshi

BNB price on Apr 16, 2026?

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

BNB price on Apr 16, 2026?

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

BNB price on Apr 16, 2026?

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

BNB price on Apr 16, 2026?

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

BNB price on Apr 16, 2026?

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

BNB price on Apr 16, 2026?

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

BNB price on Apr 16, 2026?

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

BNB price on Apr 16, 2026?

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

BNB price on Apr 16, 2026?

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

BNB price on Apr 16, 2026?

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

BNB price on Apr 16, 2026?

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

BNB price on Apr 16, 2026?

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

BNB price on Apr 16, 2026?

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

BNB price on Apr 16, 2026?

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

BNB price on Apr 16, 2026?

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

BNB price on Apr 16, 2026?

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This market resolves based on whether BNB/USDT closes higher than or equal to its opening price during the 1-hour candle beginning at April 16, 5PM ET on Binance. A close price ≥ open price resolves to 'Up'; otherwise it resolves to 'Down'. The settlement uses only Binance's official BNB/USDT pair data, not other exchanges or trading pairs.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi measure fundamentally different events at the same timestamp. Polymarket resolves on Binance BNB/USDT 1H candle open vs. close comparison, while Kalshi resolves on whether CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI falls into one of 40 specific price bands—creating incompatible settlement values and resolution criteria.Hero tip: Do not assume these markets move together. Polymarket is a directional bet (Up/Down); Kalshi is a price-band lottery where almost every price point resolves YES. If BNB closes above open on Polymarket (Up wins), Kalshi may still resolve NO if the CF Benchmarks average falls in one of the few uncovered gaps ($515-519.99 excluded, $520-524.99 included, etc.). Arbitrage is blocked by source mismatch and incompatible payoff structures.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Binary Up/Down based on Binance BNB/USDT 1H candle: resolves UP if close >= open, DOWN otherwise. Single resolution source: Binance official price feed for the 1-hour candle beginning at 5 PM ET on April 16. Quote: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
  • Kalshi: 40-outcome price-band resolution based on CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI 60-second simple average before 5 PM EDT. Resolves YES if price falls into any of 40 bands ($515-519.99, $520-524.99, ... $700-704.99, or above $704.99 or below $515). Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is [band], then the market resolves to Yes.' Only gaps are $555-559.99 (covered), $560-564.99 (covered), etc.—effectively all prices resolve YES except for unmapped micro-ranges.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.