TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
BNB Up or Down - April 12, 5PM ET
Volume:
$3,844
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
These markets track whether BNB/USDT will close higher than or equal to its opening price during a specific 1-hour candle on April 12, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance's 1H candle close vs. open comparison, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' 60-second average price at the exact timestamp across 28 discrete price bands.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use different resolution mechanics (directional vs. price-band) and different data sources (Binance 1H candle vs. CF Benchmarks 60-second average). The markets are not logically equivalent and may resolve differently.Hero Tip:
Treat these as two separate markets with different payoff structures. Polymarket pays on direction (Up/Down); Kalshi pays on price level (Yes if in any band). A Binance 1H candle that closes up could still resolve No on Kalshi if the CF Benchmarks average lands outside all 28 bands (unlikely but possible). Cross-platform arbitrage requires careful price reconciliation.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary directional market. Resolves Up if BNB/USDT 1H candle close >= open on Binance at 5 PM ET April 12. Resolves Down otherwise. Data source: Binance BNB/USDT pair, 1H candle close and open prices displayed on chart.
- Kalshi: Price-band market. Resolves Yes if CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI 60-second average before 5 PM EDT falls into any of 28 predefined $5 price ranges ($510-$700+). Resolves No if price falls outside all bands. Data source: CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI real-time index.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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