TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$87,997,338

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,395,155,069

395,664

Markets across

30,076

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,626

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
BNB Up or Down - April 11, 5PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

BNB Up or Down - April 11, 5PM ET

Volume:
$326

$535 or above

 - Kalshi

$535 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 17, 2026

Closed: Apr 11, 5:05 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$535 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$109
N/A
N/A
$109
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$530 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$86
N/A
N/A
$86
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$600 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$14
N/A
N/A
$14
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$520 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$11
N/A
N/A
$11
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$575 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$8
N/A
N/A
$7
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$545 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6
N/A
N/A
$6
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$550 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6
N/A
N/A
$6
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$555 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6
N/A
N/A
$6
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$560 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6
N/A
N/A
$6
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$565 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6
N/A
N/A
$6
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$570 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6
N/A
N/A
$6
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$610 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$4
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$505 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4
N/A
N/A
$4
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$510 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4
N/A
N/A
$4
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$515 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4
N/A
N/A
$4
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$525 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4
N/A
N/A
$4
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$540 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4
N/A
N/A
$4
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$580 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4
N/A
N/A
$4
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$585 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4
N/A
N/A
$4
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$590 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4
N/A
N/A
$4
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$595 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4
N/A
N/A
$4
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$605 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4
N/A
N/A
$4
Settled
Yes
polymarket

BNB Up or Down - April 11, 5PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$615 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
No
kalshi

$620 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group tracks whether BNB price moves up or down on April 11, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses a 1-hour candle close vs. open comparison on Binance BNB/USDT, while Kalshi uses 31 separate price thresholds based on CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI index. The markets measure the same directional outcome but rely on different data sources, methodologies, and granularity.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi use different data sources (Binance spot vs. CF Benchmarks RTI index), different measurement methods (1H candle open/close comparison vs. 60-second price averages at discrete thresholds), and different outcome structures (binary Up/Down vs. 31 separate price-level conditions). While both measure BNB price direction at 5 PM ET on April 11, 2026, the underlying mechanics and potential settlement values are incompatible.Hero tip: Do not assume these markets are interchangeable or that a position on one platform hedges the other. Polymarket's binary Up/Down outcome depends on Binance's 1H candle data; Kalshi's 31 thresholds depend on CF Benchmarks' RTI, which may price differently. If you trade both, monitor both data sources independently. In a volatile market, Binance spot and the benchmark index can diverge, creating basis risk.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Binary directional market. Resolves "Up" if BNB/USDT 1-hour candle close >= open on Binance. Uses single exchange data source. Quote: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
  • Kalshi: 31 separate price-level markets. Each resolves Yes if CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI 60-second average before 5 PM EDT exceeds a specific threshold ($504.99 to $699.99). No unified Up/Down outcome; instead, discrete binary outcomes at each price level. Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Apr 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.