TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
BNB Up or Down - April 11, 5PM ET
Volume:
$326
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether BNB price moves up or down on April 11, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses a 1-hour candle close vs. open comparison on Binance BNB/USDT, while Kalshi uses 31 separate price thresholds based on CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI index. The markets measure the same directional outcome but rely on different data sources, methodologies, and granularity.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use different data sources (Binance spot vs. CF Benchmarks RTI index), different measurement methods (1H candle open/close comparison vs. 60-second price averages at discrete thresholds), and different outcome structures (binary Up/Down vs. 31 separate price-level conditions). While both measure BNB price direction at 5 PM ET on April 11, 2026, the underlying mechanics and potential settlement values are incompatible.Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets are interchangeable or that a position on one platform hedges the other. Polymarket's binary Up/Down outcome depends on Binance's 1H candle data; Kalshi's 31 thresholds depend on CF Benchmarks' RTI, which may price differently. If you trade both, monitor both data sources independently. In a volatile market, Binance spot and the benchmark index can diverge, creating basis risk.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary directional market. Resolves "Up" if BNB/USDT 1-hour candle close >= open on Binance. Uses single exchange data source. Quote: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
- Kalshi: 31 separate price-level markets. Each resolves Yes if CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI 60-second average before 5 PM EDT exceeds a specific threshold ($504.99 to $699.99). No unified Up/Down outcome; instead, discrete binary outcomes at each price level. Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Apr 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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