TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5PM ET

Volume:
$3,464,165

$68,250 or above

 - Kalshi

$68,250 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 7, 2026

Closed: Mar 6, 5:05 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$68,250 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$358,711
N/A
N/A
$94,100
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$67,750 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$252,053
N/A
N/A
$47,325
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$195,315
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$67,250 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$135,846
N/A
N/A
$38,752
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$66,750 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$132,964
N/A
N/A
$27,421
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$66,250 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$96,631
N/A
N/A
$32,445
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$65,750 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$51,732
N/A
N/A
$15,295
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$64,250 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$25,707
N/A
N/A
$5,414
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$65,250 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$19,732
N/A
N/A
$5,407
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$62,250 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$19,384
N/A
N/A
$14,056
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$63,750 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$18,644
N/A
N/A
$9,169
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$64,750 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$17,722
N/A
N/A
$9,683
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$63,250 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$15,390
N/A
N/A
$10,407
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$62,750 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$14,646
N/A
N/A
$6,221
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$54,750 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$9,781
N/A
N/A
$8,878
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$61,750 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$9,351
N/A
N/A
$5,349
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$58,750 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$7,330
N/A
N/A
$5,660
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$58,250 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$7,017
N/A
N/A
$1,865
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$57,250 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6,538
N/A
N/A
$6,268
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$56,750 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5,470
N/A
N/A
$1,917
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$61,250 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5,246
N/A
N/A
$2,395
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$60,750 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,598
N/A
N/A
$3,558
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$57,750 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,268
N/A
N/A
$1,876
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$59,750 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,942
N/A
N/A
$1,883
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$59,250 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,913
N/A
N/A
$2,501
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 51

Description

This event group tracks whether Bitcoin's price moves up or down at a specific moment on March 6, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance BTC/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) 60-second average. Both platforms aim to capture directional price movement at the same timestamp but employ fundamentally different data sources and measurement methodologies.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi employ incompatible price sources (Binance BTC/USDT spot candle vs. CF Benchmarks BRTI index), incompatible time windows (1-hour candle open/close vs. 60-second pre-5PM average), and incompatible resolution logic (binary up/down vs. 50 separate price thresholds). This creates high risk of conflicting resolutions and suggests potential data integrity or market configuration failure on Kalshi.Hero tip: Do not treat these as fungible markets. Polymarket resolves based on Binance spot price candle mechanics; Kalshi resolves based on a third-party index with 50 separate threshold conditions. Confirm Kalshi's actual market structure (is this truly one market or 50 separate markets?) and verify CF Benchmarks BRTI data availability before settlement. Consider the possibility of Kalshi market misconfiguration.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Binary directional market. Resolves UP if BTC/USDT 1-hour candle close price >= open price on Binance at 5 PM ET March 6. Resolves DOWN otherwise. Single, unambiguous outcome. Source: Binance BTC/USDT pair, 1H candle finalized data.
  • Kalshi: 50 separate price-threshold conditions, each resolving YES if CF Benchmarks BRTI 60-second average (measured in the 60 seconds before 5 PM EST) exceeds a specific threshold (ranging from 54,749.99 to 79,249.99). No explicit NO outcome or binary structure provided. Source: CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI), not Binance.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.