TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$224,446,576
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,198,377,813
501,416
Markets across
13,642
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,816
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5PM ET
Volume:
$3,464,165
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Bitcoin's price moves up or down at a specific moment on March 6, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance BTC/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) 60-second average. Both platforms aim to capture directional price movement at the same timestamp but employ fundamentally different data sources and measurement methodologies.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi employ incompatible price sources (Binance BTC/USDT spot candle vs. CF Benchmarks BRTI index), incompatible time windows (1-hour candle open/close vs. 60-second pre-5PM average), and incompatible resolution logic (binary up/down vs. 50 separate price thresholds). This creates high risk of conflicting resolutions and suggests potential data integrity or market configuration failure on Kalshi.Hero Tip:
Do not treat these as fungible markets. Polymarket resolves based on Binance spot price candle mechanics; Kalshi resolves based on a third-party index with 50 separate threshold conditions. Confirm Kalshi's actual market structure (is this truly one market or 50 separate markets?) and verify CF Benchmarks BRTI data availability before settlement. Consider the possibility of Kalshi market misconfiguration.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary directional market. Resolves UP if BTC/USDT 1-hour candle close price >= open price on Binance at 5 PM ET March 6. Resolves DOWN otherwise. Single, unambiguous outcome. Source: Binance BTC/USDT pair, 1H candle finalized data.
- Kalshi: 50 separate price-threshold conditions, each resolving YES if CF Benchmarks BRTI 60-second average (measured in the 60 seconds before 5 PM EST) exceeds a specific threshold (ranging from 54,749.99 to 79,249.99). No explicit NO outcome or binary structure provided. Source: CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI), not Binance.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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