TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$216,099,358
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,189,677,720
500,754
Markets across
13,672
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,801
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Bitcoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream BTC/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally different resolution sources, timing windows, and settlement methodologies. Polymarket resolves based on Chainlink BTC/USD price comparison over a 4-hour window (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET on March 28), while Kalshi resolves based on CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) at a single point in time (5:00 PM EDT on March 28, 2026) with 60 separate price-level thresholds. These differences make it impossible for both markets to resolve identically under the same Bitcoin price movement.Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets will resolve the same way. Polymarket is a simple directional bet (Up vs Down) over a 4-hour window using Chainlink data. Kalshi is a complex set of 60 binary outcomes tied to specific BRTI price levels at 5 PM EDT. If you trade both, monitor Chainlink and BRTI feeds separately—they may diverge, and Kalshi's resolution depends on which of its 60 thresholds is breached, not on a simple directional move.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Outlier: Resolves based on Chainlink BTC/USD price comparison—YES (Up) if end-of-window price >= start-of-window price, NO (Down) otherwise—over the 4-hour window 4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET on March 28. Uses a single binary outcome tied to price direction, not price levels. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the Bitcoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range.'
- Kalshi: Outlier: Resolves based on CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) at 5:00 PM EDT on March 28, 2026, using the 60-second average immediately before that timestamp. Contains 60 separate binary YES/NO outcomes, each tied to a specific price threshold (ranging from 57,799.99 to 77,549.99). Each threshold is an independent market; resolution is YES if BRTI average exceeds that threshold, NO otherwise. Key quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Mar 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
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