TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$224,446,576
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,198,377,813
501,416
Markets across
13,642
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,816
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5PM ET
Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally different resolution sources, timing windows, and settlement values. Polymarket resolves based on Binance BTC/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) 60-second average with 47 distinct price thresholds, creating incompatible outcomes.Hero Tip:
These markets will almost certainly resolve differently. Polymarket is a simple binary (Up if close >= open, Down otherwise) on Binance data. Kalshi has 47 separate Yes/No markets each tied to different BRTI thresholds—your position on one Kalshi market may resolve Yes while another resolves No, and neither outcome may match Polymarket's result. Do not assume arbitrage; verify which platform's source and logic matches your actual price expectation.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Resolves based on Binance BTC/USDT 1-hour candle comparison—Yes (Up) if close price >= open price for the 1H candle beginning at 5 PM ET on March 27, No (Down) otherwise. Uses a single binary outcome tied to one exchange pair. Key quote: 'The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Resolves via 47 separate Yes/No markets, each comparing the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT against a unique price threshold (ranging from 58399.99 to 82899.99). Each market resolves Yes if BRTI average exceeds its threshold, No otherwise. Key quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Mar 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
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