TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$198,896,558
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,591,877
500,572
Markets across
13,691
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,797
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
Description
This event group tracks whether Bitcoin's price, measured by the CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI), will be above a specific threshold at 5 PM EDT on March 24, 2026. The 80 individual markets on Kalshi represent a granular price ladder, each with a distinct strike price ranging from $58,299.99 to $78,049.99, allowing traders to bet on Bitcoin's directional movement and price precision during the specified 4-hour window (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET, with settlement at 5 PM EDT). Polymarket data is unavailable, so resolution logic is derived solely from Kalshi's published rules.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally different resolution sources, time windows, and settlement logic. Polymarket resolves based on Chainlink BTC/USD price comparison over a 4-hour window (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET on March 24), while Kalshi resolves based on CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) at a single point in time (5:00 PM EDT on March 24, 2026) against 68 different price thresholds. The platforms measure different indices, use different timing, and have incompatible outcome structures.Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets will resolve identically. Polymarket's outcome depends on whether Bitcoin price at 8:00 PM ET exceeds the price at 4:00 PM ET using Chainlink data. Kalshi's outcome depends on whether the 60-second average BRTI before 5:00 PM EDT exceeds any of 68 specific price levels—each threshold is a separate market. Even if Bitcoin moves up, Polymarket and Kalshi may resolve differently if Chainlink and BRTI diverge, or if the timing of the price measurement differs.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket resolves based on a price comparison (end-of-window vs. start-of-window) using Chainlink BTC/USD data stream over a 4-hour window (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET on March 24). Resolution is binary: UP if final price >= initial price, DOWN otherwise. Source: 'This market will resolve to Up if the Bitcoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range.'
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi resolves based on whether the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5:00 PM EDT on March 24, 2026 exceeds one of 68 specific price thresholds (ranging from 58,299.99 to 78,049.99). Each threshold is a separate market; all resolve YES if BRTI exceeds the stated level. Source: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Mar 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
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