Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

Critical divergence points:

• Polymarket: Outlier: Resolves based on a 4-hour price comparison (4:00 PM to 8:00 PM ET on March 22) using Chainlink's BTC/USD data stream. Market resolves YES ('Up') if end-of-window price is greater than or equal to start-of-window price, otherwise NO ('Down'). Single binary outcome determined by relative price movement, not absolute thresholds. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the Bitcoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to Down.'
• Kalshi: Outlier: Resolves based on 80 separate YES/NO markets, each tied to a distinct price threshold measured as the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5:00 PM EDT on March 22, 2026. Each market resolves YES if BRTI average exceeds its specific threshold (ranging from 60,599.99 to 80,349.99), otherwise NO. Uses a different data source (BRTI vs. Chainlink), different timing (single point-in-time at 5 PM vs. 4-hour window), and different measurement methodology (60-second average vs. direct price comparison). Key quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Mar 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'