TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$198,896,558
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,591,877
500,572
Markets across
13,691
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,797
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
Volume:
$946,823
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Bitcoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream BTC/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally different resolution sources, timing windows, and measurement methodologies. Polymarket measures price change over a 4-hour window (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET on March 22) using Chainlink's BTC/USD data stream, while Kalshi measures 60-second averages of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) at exactly 5:00 PM EDT on March 22, 2026, across 80 separate price thresholds. These differences make it impossible for both markets to resolve identically under the same Bitcoin price movement.Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets will move together. Polymarket's outcome depends on whether Bitcoin's price at 8:00 PM ET exceeds its price at 4:00 PM ET using Chainlink data. Kalshi's outcome depends on whether the 60-second BRTI average before 5:00 PM EDT exceeds any of 80 distinct price levels. A Bitcoin price that satisfies Polymarket's 'Up' condition may not satisfy any of Kalshi's thresholds, and vice versa. Verify your position against the specific source and timing for each platform before trading.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Outlier: Resolves based on a 4-hour price comparison (4:00 PM to 8:00 PM ET on March 22) using Chainlink's BTC/USD data stream. Market resolves YES ('Up') if end-of-window price is greater than or equal to start-of-window price, otherwise NO ('Down'). Single binary outcome determined by relative price movement, not absolute thresholds. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the Bitcoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to Down.'
- Kalshi: Outlier: Resolves based on 80 separate YES/NO markets, each tied to a distinct price threshold measured as the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5:00 PM EDT on March 22, 2026. Each market resolves YES if BRTI average exceeds its specific threshold (ranging from 60,599.99 to 80,349.99), otherwise NO. Uses a different data source (BRTI vs. Chainlink), different timing (single point-in-time at 5 PM vs. 4-hour window), and different measurement methodology (60-second average vs. direct price comparison). Key quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Mar 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.