TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$224,446,576
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,198,377,813
501,416
Markets across
13,642
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,816
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5PM ET
Volume:
$236,695
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Bitcoin's price moves up or down at a specific moment on March 18, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance BTC/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) 60-second average within discrete price bands. The two platforms measure different data sources and employ fundamentally different resolution methodologies.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Two distinct data sources (Binance spot candle vs. CF Benchmarks BRTI index), two incompatible measurement windows (1-hour candle vs. 60-second average), and two fundamentally different logical structures (binary comparison vs. multi-band categorical) create separate, non-interchangeable markets.Hero Tip:
Treat these as two independent markets. Polymarket is a directional bet on Binance BTC/USDT hourly momentum. Kalshi is a bet on whether BRTI falls into one of 40 predefined price zones. Price correlation between Binance spot and BRTI is high but not perfect. Arbitrage risk exists if one platform misprices relative to the other's true probability distribution.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary directional resolution. Compares the open and close prices of the BTC/USDT 1-hour candle beginning at 5 PM ET on March 18, 2026. Resolves UP if close >= open; DOWN if close < open. Data source: Binance BTC/USDT pair. Key Quote: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
- Kalshi: Multi-band categorical resolution disguised as binary. Evaluates the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) in the 60 seconds immediately before 5 PM EDT on March 18, 2026. Resolves YES if the average falls within ANY of 40 discrete price bands (64600-65099.99, 65100-65599.99, ... 83100-83599.99, plus below 64600 and above 83599.99). Resolves NO only if outside all bands. Data source: CF Benchmarks BRTI. Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is [band], then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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