TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$224,446,576
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,198,377,813
501,416
Markets across
13,642
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,816
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5PM ET
Volume:
$3,116,375
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Bitcoin's price moves up or down during a specific 1-hour window on March 13, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance BTC/USDT 1H candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) 60-second average. Both markets resolve on the same date and time but measure price movement using different data sources and methodologies.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Two distinct price indices and measurement methodologies create settlement value mismatch risk. Polymarket uses Binance spot BTC/USDT candle data; Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks BRTI index. Both measure the same event window (5 PM ET, March 13, 2026) but may produce different UP/DOWN outcomes.Hero Tip:
Treat these as separate markets with correlated but non-identical outcomes. Binance BTC/USDT and CF Benchmarks BRTI typically track closely but can diverge during volatile periods or due to liquidity differences. If you are hedging across platforms, monitor both indices starting at 4:50 PM ET on March 13. Kalshi's resolution is effectively binary (YES if BRTI > 57,999.99, NO otherwise), despite 50 listed thresholds.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Uses Binance BTC/USDT 1-hour candle. Resolves UP if close price >= open price for the 1H candle beginning at 5 PM ET on March 13, 2026. Source: Binance official trading data displayed on the 1H chart.
- Kalshi: Uses CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI). Resolves YES if the 60-second simple average of BRTI immediately before 5 PM EDT exceeds any threshold from 57,999.99 to 82,499.99. All 50 thresholds are logically redundant; only the lowest matters for YES resolution.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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