TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5PM ET

Volume:
$3,116,375

$71,000 or above

 - Kalshi

$71,000 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 18, 2026

Closed: Mar 13, 5:05 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$71,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$353,833
N/A
N/A
$85,329
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$70,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$203,131
N/A
N/A
$51,646
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$70,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$164,083
N/A
N/A
$47,410
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$69,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$103,173
N/A
N/A
$49,566
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$68,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$95,856
N/A
N/A
$20,036
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$67,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$92,911
N/A
N/A
$21,440
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$69,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$90,402
N/A
N/A
$21,257
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$68,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$83,530
N/A
N/A
$29,024
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$67,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$82,592
N/A
N/A
$24,460
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$66,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$60,939
N/A
N/A
$25,156
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$66,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$54,659
N/A
N/A
$20,206
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$65,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$30,663
N/A
N/A
$21,450
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$65,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$17,583
N/A
N/A
$9,251
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$64,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10,909
N/A
N/A
$6,065
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$64,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10,229
N/A
N/A
$6,005
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$62,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$9,462
N/A
N/A
$1,613
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$63,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$7,212
N/A
N/A
$6,529
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$58,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$7,053
N/A
N/A
$6,441
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$60,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6,489
N/A
N/A
$5,928
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$63,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5,320
N/A
N/A
$2,447
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$58,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,216
N/A
N/A
$4,165
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$60,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,792
N/A
N/A
$3,718
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$62,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,571
N/A
N/A
$2,937
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$59,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,415
N/A
N/A
$2,267
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$61,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,426
N/A
N/A
$1,127
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 51

Description

This event group tracks whether Bitcoin's price moves up or down during a specific 1-hour window on March 13, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance BTC/USDT 1H candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) 60-second average. Both markets resolve on the same date and time but measure price movement using different data sources and methodologies.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Two distinct price indices and measurement methodologies create settlement value mismatch risk. Polymarket uses Binance spot BTC/USDT candle data; Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks BRTI index. Both measure the same event window (5 PM ET, March 13, 2026) but may produce different UP/DOWN outcomes.Hero tip: Treat these as separate markets with correlated but non-identical outcomes. Binance BTC/USDT and CF Benchmarks BRTI typically track closely but can diverge during volatile periods or due to liquidity differences. If you are hedging across platforms, monitor both indices starting at 4:50 PM ET on March 13. Kalshi's resolution is effectively binary (YES if BRTI > 57,999.99, NO otherwise), despite 50 listed thresholds.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Uses Binance BTC/USDT 1-hour candle. Resolves UP if close price >= open price for the 1H candle beginning at 5 PM ET on March 13, 2026. Source: Binance official trading data displayed on the 1H chart.
  • Kalshi: Uses CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI). Resolves YES if the 60-second simple average of BRTI immediately before 5 PM EDT exceeds any threshold from 57,999.99 to 82,499.99. All 50 thresholds are logically redundant; only the lowest matters for YES resolution.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.