TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 5PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 5PM ET

Volume:
$2,403,339

$66,800 or above

 - Kalshi

$66,800 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 4, 2026

Closed: Apr 3, 5:05 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$66,800 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$468,713
N/A
N/A
$158,758
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$66,300 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$271,528
N/A
N/A
$62,721
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$65,800 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$106,325
N/A
N/A
$36,544
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 5PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$99,071
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$65,300 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$98,839
N/A
N/A
$52,090
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$64,800 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$80,498
N/A
N/A
$28,664
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$64,300 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$59,612
N/A
N/A
$39,173
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$63,300 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$33,770
N/A
N/A
$20,060
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$63,800 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$26,697
N/A
N/A
$19,332
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$62,800 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$19,657
N/A
N/A
$9,704
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$61,300 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$9,944
N/A
N/A
$8,798
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$59,300 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$9,257
N/A
N/A
$8,807
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$62,300 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$7,826
N/A
N/A
$6,300
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$61,800 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$7,731
N/A
N/A
$5,286
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$58,300 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,524
N/A
N/A
$3,608
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$57,300 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,782
N/A
N/A
$3,748
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$60,300 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,305
N/A
N/A
$2,749
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$60,800 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,571
N/A
N/A
$1,980
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$58,800 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,418
N/A
N/A
$2,198
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$57,800 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,160
N/A
N/A
$1,448
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$59,800 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,930
N/A
N/A
$1,486
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$55,300 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$877
N/A
N/A
$719
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$56,800 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$831
N/A
N/A
$799
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$56,300 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$552
N/A
N/A
$550
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$55,800 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$186
N/A
N/A
$160
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 51

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally different resolution sources, timing mechanisms, and settlement values. Polymarket resolves based on Binance BTC/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi resolves based on 60-second average of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) at a specific moment. Additionally, Kalshi's 50 conditions appear to represent multiple distinct binary markets (each with its own price threshold), not a single unified market, creating structural incompatibility.Hero tip: Do not assume these markets will resolve identically. If you trade both platforms, understand that Polymarket measures directional movement (up vs down) on Binance spot data, while Kalshi measures whether BRTI crosses specific price thresholds. A price move that resolves YES on one platform may resolve NO on the other due to source and methodology differences. Verify the exact BRTI value and Binance candle data at settlement time before assuming alignment.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket resolves based on a single binary comparison of Binance BTC/USDT 1-hour candle open versus close price. The market resolves YES (Up) if close >= open, NO (Down) if close < open. Source is explicitly Binance spot data: 'The close and open displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
  • Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi resolves based on whether the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) exceeds one of 50 distinct price thresholds (ranging from 55,299.99 to 79,799.99). Each of the 50 conditions appears to represent a separate binary market, not a single unified market. Source is CF Benchmarks BRTI, not Binance: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Apr 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.