TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 5PM ET
Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally different resolution sources, timing mechanisms, and settlement values. Polymarket resolves based on Binance BTC/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi resolves based on 60-second average of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) at a specific moment. Additionally, Kalshi's 50 conditions appear to represent multiple distinct binary markets (each with its own price threshold), not a single unified market, creating structural incompatibility.Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets will resolve identically. If you trade both platforms, understand that Polymarket measures directional movement (up vs down) on Binance spot data, while Kalshi measures whether BRTI crosses specific price thresholds. A price move that resolves YES on one platform may resolve NO on the other due to source and methodology differences. Verify the exact BRTI value and Binance candle data at settlement time before assuming alignment.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket resolves based on a single binary comparison of Binance BTC/USDT 1-hour candle open versus close price. The market resolves YES (Up) if close >= open, NO (Down) if close < open. Source is explicitly Binance spot data: 'The close and open displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi resolves based on whether the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) exceeds one of 50 distinct price thresholds (ranging from 55,299.99 to 79,799.99). Each of the 50 conditions appears to represent a separate binary market, not a single unified market. Source is CF Benchmarks BRTI, not Binance: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Apr 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
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