TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.2b
24H VOL:
$217,900,088
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,256,149,940
499,530
Markets across
13,705
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,785
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5PM ET
Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Two distinct measurement methodologies: Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks BRTI index levels at a point-in-time snapshot, while Polymarket uses Binance spot price directional movement over a 1-hour candle. Different data sources, different time windows, and different resolution logic create settlement risk.Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets will resolve identically. Kalshi's 50 markets each measure whether BRTI exceeds a specific threshold at 5 PM EDT. Polymarket measures whether BTC/USDT closes higher than it opened during the 5 PM ET hour on Binance. Cross-platform arbitrage is possible but requires careful threshold selection on Kalshi and confirmation of Binance candle data.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Measures CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) as a 60-second simple average immediately before 5 PM EDT on April 24, 2026. Offers 50 separate YES/NO markets, each with a distinct price threshold ranging from 62,999.99 to 87,499.99. Resolution to YES occurs if the BRTI average exceeds the specified threshold. Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [THRESHOLD] at 5 PM EDT on Apr 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Measures Bitcoin price direction using Binance BTC/USDT pair for the 1-hour candle beginning at 5 PM ET on April 24, 2026. Resolves to UP if close price >= open price, DOWN otherwise. Single binary outcome per market. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to Down.'
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