TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.2b
24H VOL:
$217,900,088
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,256,149,940
499,530
Markets across
13,705
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,785
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5PM ET
Description
This event group tracks whether Bitcoin's price moves up or down during a specific 1-hour window on April 20, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket measures this as a simple comparison of open vs. close prices on Binance's BTC/USDT pair, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) averaged over 60 seconds before 5 PM EDT. Both markets resolve based on price data at the same moment in time, but they reference different data sources and methodologies.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally incompatible resolution sources and methodologies. Polymarket resolves based on Binance BTC/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi resolves based on CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) 60-second average. These are different data sources, different time windows, and different calculation methods, making cross-platform arbitrage impossible and creating unresolvable conflicts.Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets are equivalent. On Polymarket, you are betting on a simple directional move (close >= open) on a single exchange's 1H candle. On Kalshi, you are betting on whether the BRTI 60-second average falls into one of 80 discrete price bands—most of which resolve YES, making the market effectively a 'price exists' bet rather than a directional bet. If you trade both, you are exposed to basis risk and source divergence. Kalshi's structure is also unusual: nearly all price ranges resolve YES, suggesting the actual NO resolution band is extremely narrow or undefined.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Resolves UP if BTC/USDT 1-hour candle close price >= open price on Binance at 5 PM ET on April 20. Resolves DOWN otherwise. Single binary outcome based on intracandle price comparison. Source: Binance BTC/USDT pair only.
- Kalshi: Resolves YES if the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT falls into one of 80 specified price bands (ranging from below 65250 to above 84749.99). Each band is 250 units wide. Resolves YES for nearly all price ranges; NO resolution condition is not explicitly stated. Source: CF Benchmarks BRTI, not Binance.
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