TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$133,388,117

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,436,095,462

405,232

Markets across

30,526

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

Volume:
$2,139,711

$71,250 or above

 - Kalshi

$71,250 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 17, 2026

Closed: Apr 12, 5:05 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$71,250 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$660,935
N/A
N/A
$152,006
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$71,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$521,382
N/A
N/A
$149,158
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$70,750 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$89,548
N/A
N/A
$44,842
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$70,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$84,874
N/A
N/A
$46,057
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$70,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$32,547
N/A
N/A
$23,283
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$70,250 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$17,459
N/A
N/A
$11,365
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$62,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$11,048
N/A
N/A
$10,995
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$69,750 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$8,384
N/A
N/A
$3,563
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$68,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$7,407
N/A
N/A
$7,397
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$68,250 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6,225
N/A
N/A
$6,083
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$69,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6,159
N/A
N/A
$5,544
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$68,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5,514
N/A
N/A
$5,370
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$69,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,760
N/A
N/A
$2,587
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$69,250 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,431
N/A
N/A
$2,186
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$68,750 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,022
N/A
N/A
$2,987
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$66,750 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,207
N/A
N/A
$1,109
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$67,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$689
N/A
N/A
$595
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$67,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$481
N/A
N/A
$339
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$67,250 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$394
N/A
N/A
$300
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$67,750 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$305
N/A
N/A
$143
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$62,750 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$63,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$63,250 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$63,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$63,750 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 81

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Bitcoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream BTC/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally different resolution sources, time windows, and settlement logic. Polymarket resolves based on Chainlink BTC/USD price movement over a 4-hour window (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET on April 12), while Kalshi resolves based on CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) at a single point in time (5:00 PM EDT on April 12, 2026) against 80 distinct price thresholds. The platforms cannot produce equivalent outcomes.Hero tip: Do not assume these markets will settle identically. Polymarket is a simple directional bet (Up vs Down from start to end of the 4-hour window), while Kalshi is a series of 80 binary micro-markets each tied to a specific price level. Chainlink and CF Benchmarks may diverge on price, and Kalshi's 5 PM snapshot may not align with Polymarket's 8 PM close. Arbitrage is risky.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Outlier: Resolves based on Chainlink BTC/USD data stream, comparing price at 4:00 PM ET to price at 8:00 PM ET on April 12. Market resolves YES (Up) if end price >= start price, NO (Down) otherwise. Single binary outcome. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the Bitcoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range.'
  • Kalshi: Outlier: Resolves based on CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) 60-second average immediately before 5:00 PM EDT on April 12, 2026, against 80 separate price thresholds ranging from 62,499.99 to 82,249.99. Each threshold is a distinct binary market (Yes if BRTI average exceeds threshold, No otherwise). Key quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Apr 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.