TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Bitcoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream BTC/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally different resolution sources, time windows, and settlement logic. Polymarket resolves based on Chainlink BTC/USD price movement over a 4-hour window (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET on April 12), while Kalshi resolves based on CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) at a single point in time (5:00 PM EDT on April 12, 2026) against 80 distinct price thresholds. The platforms cannot produce equivalent outcomes.Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets will settle identically. Polymarket is a simple directional bet (Up vs Down from start to end of the 4-hour window), while Kalshi is a series of 80 binary micro-markets each tied to a specific price level. Chainlink and CF Benchmarks may diverge on price, and Kalshi's 5 PM snapshot may not align with Polymarket's 8 PM close. Arbitrage is risky.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Outlier: Resolves based on Chainlink BTC/USD data stream, comparing price at 4:00 PM ET to price at 8:00 PM ET on April 12. Market resolves YES (Up) if end price >= start price, NO (Down) otherwise. Single binary outcome. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the Bitcoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range.'
- Kalshi: Outlier: Resolves based on CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) 60-second average immediately before 5:00 PM EDT on April 12, 2026, against 80 separate price thresholds ranging from 62,499.99 to 82,249.99. Each threshold is a distinct binary market (Yes if BRTI average exceeds threshold, No otherwise). Key quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Apr 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.