TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Bitcoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream BTC/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally different resolution sources, time windows, and settlement logic. Polymarket resolves based on Chainlink BTC/USD price comparison over a 4-hour window (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET), while Kalshi uses 60 discrete price thresholds measured against CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) at exactly 5:00 PM EDT. The platforms cannot produce equivalent outcomes for the same underlying event.Hero Tip:
Do not assume your position on one platform hedges your position on the other. Polymarket's binary Up/Down outcome depends on whether 8:00 PM price exceeds 4:00 PM price; Kalshi's outcome depends on whether the 5:00 PM BRTI 60-second average exceeds one of 60 specific thresholds. A price that moves Up on Polymarket may not trigger any Kalshi threshold, and vice versa. Verify your bet against the exact source and time window before committing capital.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Outlier: Resolves based on Chainlink BTC/USD data stream, comparing price at 8:00 PM ET against price at 4:00 PM ET. Market resolves YES (Up) if end-of-window price >= start-of-window price, NO (Down) otherwise. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the Bitcoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range.'
- Kalshi: Outlier: Resolves based on CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI), measuring the 60-second simple average immediately before 5:00 PM EDT on April 11, 2026. Each of 60 markets resolves YES if that average exceeds a specific price threshold (ranging from 61,499.99 to 81,249.99); all others resolve NO. Key quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Apr 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
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