TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$133,388,117

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,436,095,462

405,232

Markets across

30,526

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

Volume:
$1,938,805

$73,250 or above

 - Kalshi

$73,250 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 17, 2026

Closed: Apr 11, 5:05 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$73,250 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$283,213
N/A
N/A
$106,978
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$73,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$244,402
N/A
N/A
$91,933
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$72,750 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$99,637
N/A
N/A
$37,160
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$72,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$61,704
N/A
N/A
$27,474
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$72,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$23,194
N/A
N/A
$15,865
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$72,250 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$19,940
N/A
N/A
$8,906
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$71,750 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$16,797
N/A
N/A
$12,761
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$71,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$7,897
N/A
N/A
$5,590
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$71,250 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$7,478
N/A
N/A
$5,422
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$66,750 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,876
N/A
N/A
$4,755
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$71,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,354
N/A
N/A
$3,905
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$69,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,186
N/A
N/A
$3,176
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$70,750 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,622
N/A
N/A
$2,446
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$68,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,894
N/A
N/A
$1,894
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$68,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,718
N/A
N/A
$1,590
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$70,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,635
N/A
N/A
$1,275
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$67,750 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,583
N/A
N/A
$1,540
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$68,250 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,550
N/A
N/A
$1,550
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$68,750 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,123
N/A
N/A
$1,123
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$67,500 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$807
N/A
N/A
$578
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$70,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$727
N/A
N/A
$727
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$70,250 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$637
N/A
N/A
$637
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$66,250 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$317
N/A
N/A
$287
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$69,750 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$220
N/A
N/A
$220
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$67,250 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
$200
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 81

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Bitcoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream BTC/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally different resolution sources, time windows, and settlement logic. Polymarket resolves based on Chainlink BTC/USD price comparison over a 4-hour window (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET), while Kalshi uses 60 discrete price thresholds measured against CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) at exactly 5:00 PM EDT. The platforms cannot produce equivalent outcomes for the same underlying event.Hero tip: Do not assume your position on one platform hedges your position on the other. Polymarket's binary Up/Down outcome depends on whether 8:00 PM price exceeds 4:00 PM price; Kalshi's outcome depends on whether the 5:00 PM BRTI 60-second average exceeds one of 60 specific thresholds. A price that moves Up on Polymarket may not trigger any Kalshi threshold, and vice versa. Verify your bet against the exact source and time window before committing capital.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Outlier: Resolves based on Chainlink BTC/USD data stream, comparing price at 8:00 PM ET against price at 4:00 PM ET. Market resolves YES (Up) if end-of-window price >= start-of-window price, NO (Down) otherwise. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the Bitcoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range.'
  • Kalshi: Outlier: Resolves based on CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI), measuring the 60-second simple average immediately before 5:00 PM EDT on April 11, 2026. Each of 60 markets resolves YES if that average exceeds a specific price threshold (ranging from 61,499.99 to 81,249.99); all others resolve NO. Key quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Apr 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.